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| Since Zt 5 Yt 2 Yt21 measures the misalignment of the prime rate relative to the latent level, these restrictions on the threshold coefficients would imply that the necessary degrees of misalignment Prime and 3-Month T-Bill Rates Percent 3-mo T-Bill Rate Prime Rate 1 If one were seeking to maximize a measure of fit for prime-rate changes, the target federal funds rate and/or the discount rate would be strong explanatory variables.
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The model uses a sixth-order distributed lag of both increases and decreases in the discount rate and a fourth-order distributed lag for increases and decreases in all of the other variables.7 Since we are primarily interested in the total effect of the explanatory variables on the probability of a prime rate change, it is convenient to re-parameterize the k-order distributed lag as ~(L)X~1~ -r(L)AX~1, (10) where /3(L) and 1(L) are the usual polynomial lag operators, p = fl~+ +fi~ and 1~= 82 + ...
The signs of these derivatives, presented in Table 4, show that the shift in probability mass is precisely from positive to non-positive changes as X,8 increases away from its mean.
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